As 2024 draws to a close, the White Rock real estate market finds itself at an inflection point. The Bank of Canada has delivered four rate cuts since June, bringing the overnight rate down to 3.75 percent. Buyer sentiment has shifted from cautious to quietly optimistic. But transaction volumes remain below historical norms, and the disconnect between seller expectations and buyer budgets continues to define the negotiation landscape. Here is where things stand heading into the holiday season and the new year.
Year-End Transaction Trends
Through the first eleven months of 2024, total residential sales across White Rock and South Surrey have been approximately 15 percent below the 10-year average. However, the trajectory has been upward since summer. Monthly sales have increased in each of the past four months compared to the same period in 2023, with November tracking toward approximately 140 transactions, a solid figure for a traditionally quiet month.
The detached market has been the slowest to recover. Homes priced above $2 million have accumulated an average of 58 days on market before selling, and many have undergone one or more price reductions. The sweet spot for activity has been the $1.2 million to $1.6 million range, where well-presented detached homes in good locations, particularly near the town centre and in the upper hillside area along streets like Thrift Avenue and North Bluff Road, have been finding buyers within 30 days.
Townhomes remain the most competitive segment. With limited new supply and strong demand from both downsizers and young families, well-located townhomes in complexes along 16th Avenue, Foster Street, and near Centennial Park have been receiving multiple offers. The median townhome price has held firm at approximately $900,000, essentially unchanged from early 2024.
Rate Changes and Their Real Impact
The cumulative 125 basis points of rate cuts since June have had a meaningful but measured effect. On a $750,000 mortgage at a five-year fixed rate, the improvement in monthly payments compared to the peak is approximately $450 per month. For many buyers, this has been the difference between qualifying and not qualifying under the federal stress test, which requires borrowers to demonstrate they can afford payments at the contract rate plus 2 percent or at 5.25 percent, whichever is higher.
The bond market, which drives fixed mortgage rates, has been sending mixed signals. Five-year Government of Canada bond yields declined through the summer but have stabilized in the 3.2 to 3.5 percent range, suggesting that further declines in fixed rates may be modest. Variable-rate mortgages have become more attractive as the Bank of Canada's rate has fallen, and some lenders are offering variable rates below 5 percent for the first time since early 2023. For specific payment estimates, use our mortgage calculator.
Inventory and Supply
Active listings in the White Rock/South Surrey area stood at approximately 580 units at the end of November, down from the seasonal peak of roughly 720 in July. This represents approximately 3.8 months of supply at the current absorption rate, a balanced market by most measures. However, the distribution of inventory is uneven.
There is an oversupply of luxury detached homes above $3 million, with nearly 40 active listings chasing fewer than five sales per month in that range. At the same time, there is a genuine shortage of entry-level condos below $500,000 and family-friendly townhomes below $950,000. Buyers in these segments should be prepared to act quickly when suitable properties appear.
Looking Ahead to 2025
Several factors suggest that the spring 2025 market could be more active than the past two springs. The Bank of Canada is expected to continue cutting rates through the first half of the year, with the overnight rate potentially reaching 3.0 to 3.25 percent by mid-2025. This would represent a significant easing from the 5.0 percent peak and should bring more buyers off the sidelines.
The federal government's recent changes to mortgage rules, including the extension of 30-year amortizations to first-time buyers of new construction and the increase in the insured mortgage cap to $1.5 million, could also support demand, particularly in the condo segment where prices are more likely to fall below the insured threshold.
On the supply side, several new condo projects in the White Rock town centre are expected to reach completion in 2025, adding to available inventory. The ongoing densification along Johnston Road and the development of underutilized commercial properties near Five Corners will gradually reshape the housing mix in the core of the city.
Buyer Opportunities Right Now
The holiday season is traditionally the best time for motivated buyers. Sellers who have not accepted an offer by December are often willing to negotiate more seriously. Price reductions are common in the weeks before Christmas as sellers who need to close before year-end become more flexible.
For buyers with financing in place, the current window offers a combination of declining rates, reduced competition, and motivated sellers that is unlikely to persist into the spring. Properties that have been on the market for 60 days or more represent the best negotiating opportunities, particularly in the West Beach and upper hillside areas where inventory is higher.
We will provide a comprehensive look at 2024 performance in our upcoming year in review, and our 2025 predictions will outline what we expect in the year ahead.